Middle East Oil Flows Are Back Near Prewar Levels, but Fuel Supply Still Lags

Middle East oil flows averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week through October 18, surpassing prewar levels, according to the Wall Street Journal, which reported the figure on October 20. The flows held up despite Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage that Gulf crude must cross to reach open water. Prewar levels, the benchmark used throughout this story, are the volumes shipped before the conflict began.

Bloomberg's account, published October 21, was more cautious. Flows were near prewar levels, but shipments are volatile, and the October-to-date average remained below the prewar mark. A single strong week can push a weekly figure over the threshold without changing the month's trend, so the gap between the two framings is the number to watch.

The September measures are harder to compare. Reuters reported on October 6 that Gulf oil flows excluding Iran rose to over 81% of prewar levels in September, led by a recovery in Saudi exports. Earlier, MarketWatch reported on September 30 that Goldman Sachs put Persian Gulf oil exports at 23.3 million barrels a day in September, a return to the pre-war 2025 average. One figure is a percentage with Iran excluded; the other is an absolute volume against a 2025 benchmark. They measure different things.

The routing matters as much as the totals. Kpler's explainer says that, excluding Iran, crude exports from the Middle East Gulf are back at pre-war levels, with about 40% of crude now bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. BBC reporting from October 2 attributed the rebound to US military assistance, shuttle tankers and pipelines that avoid the strait. Reuters commentary has also noted that crude moving through Hormuz often needs several tankers to reach the Gulf of Oman, where cargoes are transferred to smaller vessels. That adds handling steps and more hull-days per barrel, a hull-day being one day a ship spends at sea, which helps explain why freight costs remain unsettled.

Not every barrel has recovered at the same pace. In its October 1 blog, Kpler said Hormuz crude flows were near prewar levels, while refined products, the fuels made from crude such as gasoline and diesel, lagged by about 50% and freight rates remained elevated. The same post argued that normalization no longer depends on a US-Iran deal. That is a notable change from June, when Reuters reported that banks expected recovery of Hormuz flows and oil production after the US-Iran interim peace deal to take time.

The Iranian side is the weak point. Reuters reported on October 13 that a US blockade had kept Iranian crude exports at zero in October. In the same week, Bloomberg reported that Iranian attacks on ships crossing the strait had surged, potentially threatening the recovery in Persian Gulf exports.

In my view, the Iranian side is where the recovery is most fragile. Kpler expects Iranian crude exports to recover faster than those of other Gulf producers, which would add medium sour barrels, a medium-weight, high-sulfur grade, to supply for China and other buyers. That is a forecast about the future, and it depends on both the blockade and the attacks easing.

The price picture is harder to read. Kpler has raised its crude price forecast to $81 per barrel, arguing that a prolonged Middle East conflict flipped the second half of 2026 from surplus to deficit. It credits Chinese refiners with why prices are not higher still. MarketWatch's October 21 report, which describes Persian Gulf flows in October as nearly back to prewar levels, says traders remain wary.

For households, the path from barrels loaded to pump and heating prices runs through refining, freight and insurance. The refined-product lag is the link I would watch, because crude volumes can recover while the fuels consumers buy stay tight. Whether the October average catches up to prewar levels will depend largely on how long the attacks on tankers stay at their current pace.