Musk Puts a 5 Million Vehicle Target on Tesla's 2030 Horizon, Well Below His 2020 Forecast
Elon Musk said on Tesla's earnings call on Wednesday, October 21, that the company is aiming to reach 5 million vehicles a year by approximately 2030, and that Tesla has a good shot at achieving it (The Verge). The figure is a stated intent, not a current run rate, meaning the pace Tesla would sustain over a full year. It also sits well below the target Musk set in 2020, when he said Tesla would sell 20 million cars annually by 2030.
Tesla's delivery history explains much of the gap. The company delivered 936,172 vehicles in 2021 and 1,313,851 in 2022. Volume peaked at 1,808,581 in 2023. In 2024 deliveries fell to 1,789,226, the company's first annual decline, and in 2025 they fell again to 1,636,129, a second consecutive drop (The Verge).
Reuters reported on October 21 that Tesla is expected to produce 2.5 million vehicles in 2026 (Reuters). Two days earlier, Reuters had reported that Tesla was on track to grow deliveries in 2026 for the first time since 2023 (Reuters). Production and deliveries are different metrics: production counts vehicles built, while deliveries count vehicles handed to customers. Even so, the 5 million goal is roughly double the 2026 production estimate and lies about four years beyond it.
The results were released as part of Tesla's Q3 2026 Financial Results and Q&A webcast. The company's investor relations site lists the accompanying press release dated October 21, 2026 (Tesla Investor Relations).
Musk also addressed a possible combination of his two largest companies. He said a merger of SpaceX and Tesla would be "a good idea," according to Reuters video coverage published October 21 (Reuters). Reuters had earlier reported on merger talk ahead of the earnings releases. No transaction has been announced.
In my view, the most useful yardstick for the 5 million goal is not the 2020 forecast but the next two or three annual delivery figures. A 2030 volume target only becomes measurable once the trend line turns upward, and the 2026 outlook is the first data point that could show that. Suppliers, lenders and capital planners will weigh the goal against the production schedule that supports it, and the gap between a 2.5 million production estimate and a 5 million annual run rate is the number they are likely to track.
The broader context here is that a stated target with a date gives analysts and suppliers something concrete to measure against. Whether Tesla closes the gap will depend on volume growth the company has not yet shown in its recent annual figures, and on whether the timeline holds through the rest of the decade.
