Democrats Remain Favored in 2026 House Races, New NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll Finds
Democrats remain the favorites to win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections, according to a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Oct. 27. NPR also reported that the poll showed signs a potential Democratic wave could be limited.
The poll surveyed 1,289 registered voters on Oct. 19 and 20. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.8 points for likely voters.
Thirty-eight percent of registered voters approved of President Trump's job performance, and 61% disapproved. Among likely voters, 40% approved and 59% disapproved. Fifty-three percent of both groups said they "strongly disapprove" of his performance, a figure that ties the previous month for the highest recorded in the poll.
Trump's favorability among likely voters stood at 37% favorable and 59% unfavorable. NPR's September poll coverage put his favorability at 44% in January 2025, falling to 37% by September 2026.
The poll also asked which party people would support for Congress without naming candidates, a measure known as the generic congressional ballot. Democrats led by 10 points among registered voters and by 8 points among likely voters. In 2018 and 2006, Democrats averaged leads of 7 and 12 points on the same measure. In both years they won the House after flipping at least 30 seats, meaning seats switched from one party to the other.
Early voting is also part of the picture. According to PBS News, about one in five likely voters said they had already cast a ballot, and that group favored Democrats by 68%.
Money worries came up often. One-third of respondents said they had experienced financial hardship in the past year, and four in 10 said their personal finances had gotten worse. Cost of living was top of mind for many.
Priorities varied by group. Preserving democracy resonated with Democrats and independents, while immigration was the biggest concern for self-described supporters of the "Make America Great Again" movement, known as MAGA.
