Most 2026 Congressional Races Rated Solid for One Party

About 80% of congressional races in the 2026 election cycle are rated solid for one party, either Republican or Democratic, according to NPR, which published its report on November 1, 2026. A "solid" rating means forecasters expect one party to win the seat easily. The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026.

The Cook Political Report rates all 435 U.S. House seats on a seven-point scale, from Solid Democrat to Solid Republican. Its House ratings page, dated October 30, lists 186 seats as Solid Democrat and 164 as Solid Republican. In an analysis published October 23, Cook counted 220 seats as Solid, Likely or Lean Democrat, compared with 198 seats in the Republican group.

Reuters reported on October 26 that analysts estimated only about 40 to 50 of the House's 435 seats were truly competitive in 2026.

Republicans entered the November 3 vote holding a 218-214 edge in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate, according to Reuters. Democrats needed a net gain of four seats to take control of each chamber. In a late-October update, Cook projected that Democrats would flip 12 to 25 House seats, for as many as 240 seats in total.

The NPR report also follows candidates in heavily noncompetitive districts. One of them is Lisa Kinney, a former Wyoming state senator who ran as a Democrat for the state's lone U.S. House seat. That seat has elected only Republicans since the late 1970s. NPR reported that Kinney campaigned at Johnny J's Diner in Casper, Wyoming, on October 19.

NPR's feature asks what it is like to run for Congress when conventional wisdom holds that a candidate will probably lose.