Goldman Raises December Brent Target to $105 as Supply Concerns Linger
Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 Brent crude price target to $105 a barrel, according to Financial Express, which reported the change on November 2, 2026. Brent is the main global benchmark for oil, and a price target is the level a bank expects the price to reach by a set date. In an October 16 outlook, the bank had expected Brent to trade at $90 in December.
The bank's upside case has Brent averaging around $130 a barrel in 2027. Goldman has also warned that Brent could reach $140 in 2027 if a prolonged supply shock persists, according to Economic Times. Both scenarios sit well above the December target.
The current cycle began with the Iran conflict, which started in February 2026. Goldman's First Quarter 2026 Form 10-Q said the conflict has had significant implications for the global economy. In a March 3 article, the bank noted that Brent had risen from around $65 in early June 2025 to the low $80s when Israel and the U.S. struck Iran's nuclear facilities. Earlier in March, Goldman had expected Brent to average over $100 a barrel that month and $85 in April, a forecast Reuters reported on March 13.
Prices then moved back up. Brent traded above $97 a barrel in early September, and Goldman saw potential upside to $120 as Middle East fighting flared and prices approached $100, per Yahoo Finance.
Goldman has revised its path higher several times since the disruption began. In my view, that pattern tells you more than any single figure in the forecast.
For anyone managing household or business money, the mechanics matter more than the headline. Crude feeds directly into pump prices, diesel, jet fuel and freight costs, and those flow into headline inflation (the overall rate at which consumer prices rise) with a lag. A sustained move from $105 toward $130 would tend to show up first in the energy components of consumer price indices, then in core goods and services through transport and input costs.
Central banks watching inflation expectations will read the same numbers differently depending on whether they treat the shock as temporary. That judgment, more than the oil price itself, is what could shift policy.
The range itself is worth reading closely. A base case of $105 for December paired with a $130 to $140 tail for 2027 describes a market the bank sees as skewed to the upside, with the outcome hinging on how long supply stays constrained. Oil forecasts have a mixed record at turning points, and scenario ranges this wide carry little information about the central path. What the numbers do show is that the next move depends on how long the disruption lasts, not on any single data point.
Three things are worth tracking: whether Brent holds above the $97 level seen in early September, whether the bank's upside scenario moves into its base case, and whether inflation figures begin to reflect the earlier rise in crude. This is analysis of a forecast, not a recommendation on positioning.
