Nasdaq Posts Its Worst Month Since March 2025 as Rates Weigh on Tech
The Nasdaq recorded its worst monthly loss since March 2025 in October 2026, according to Reuters. The index had reached a record close on October 6, 2026, so the decline came from a recent high rather than a slow drift. Intel shares fell nearly 30% over the same month, a single-stock move that weighed on sentiment in semiconductors and the broader tech sector.
The selling carried into the final trading days before the midterm elections. U.S. stocks ended lower on November 2, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and the Nasdaq down 1%, as Reuters reported. The index moves were modest on the day. The monthly figure is the bigger story, and it is the one that has pushed investors to ask how far AI-linked valuations can absorb higher rates.
That question runs through the bond market. A MarketWatch headline from late September put it plainly: bond yields were moving relentlessly higher as Wall Street wondered how much more tech stocks could take. A yield is the annual return a bond pays its holder, and it moves opposite to price. Think of a seesaw: when yields climb, older bonds paying less look worse, so their prices fall. The same rising rate is used to discount the distant profits of fast-growing companies, which lowers what those profits are worth today. Higher yields therefore hit high-multiple tech names twice, once through the discount rate and again through the risk that costlier borrowing slows the earnings growth those valuations assume.
The next scheduled data point is the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report for October 2026, due Friday, November 6, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The headline figure is nonfarm payrolls, the monthly count of jobs added across most sectors of the economy, drawn from an employer survey. The report also includes the unemployment rate, which comes from a separate household survey.
Consensus expectations, per FactSet as cited by CNBC, call for 55,000 jobs added in October and an unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. A consensus figure is an average of economist forecasts, not a prediction the market will accept. Payroll estimates carry wide error bands, and revisions to prior months can shift the narrative even when the headline matches expectations.
For borrowers, the link is direct. Mortgage rates and many consumer loan rates track longer-dated Treasury yields, so a jobs number that pushes yields higher tightens conditions for households regardless of what the stock index does that day. For savers, the same move raises the yield available on new fixed-income purchases. No single report guarantees either outcome.
In my view, the more useful reading is that equities and bonds are now being judged against the same macro variable. A stronger-than-expected payroll number would likely be read through yields, the channel the September headline identified. A weaker print could cut either way: it might ease rate pressure and support tech multiples, or it might raise growth concerns that outweigh the relief. The reaction will depend less on the level of hiring than on how the number reshapes expectations for future rates.
What is known: the Nasdaq's worst month since March 2025 is on the record, the record close came on October 6, and the jobs report is set for November 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET. What is priced in is the consensus of 55,000 jobs and a 4.2% unemployment rate. Anything beyond those figures is speculation until the release lands.
