The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll puts the governing coalition at 61 seats — the narrowest possible majority in a 120-seat Parliament — while 54.4% of respondents say they would seriously consider voting for more than one party. The poll surveyed 1000 people from 2 to 9 July.

Labour leads on 34% of the party vote, with National at 28.7%, its lowest result since Christopher Luxon became leader. New Zealand First sits at 11.5% and ACT at 7.8%. The Greens polled 10.3%, The Opportunity Party (TOP) 4.7%, and Te Pāti Māori 2.3%.

On the straight party-vote question (who would you vote for today), the combined Labour-National vote was 62.7%, down from 66.4% in March and 66.9% in January.

The poll also tested what pollsters call a "committed-vote floor" — the share of respondents who are locked into a party regardless of persuasion. Labour's floor was 15.7%, National's 12.8%, the Greens' 4.1%, NZ First's 4%, ACT's 2.7%, Te Pāti Māori's 1.2%, and TOP's 1.2%.

When second-choice preferences were combined with those locked-in voters, both major parties lost support. Labour dropped 5.3 percentage points to 28.7%, and National fell 4.4 points to 24.3%. The minor parties all gained. NZ First rose to 13.8%, the Greens to 13.1%, ACT to 10.5%, TOP to 6%, and Te Pāti Māori to 3.6%.

Under that consideration-adjusted scenario, TOP crossed the 5% threshold needed to enter Parliament without an electorate seat, putting the party in a potential kingmaker position. The combined Labour-National vote in that model was 53%, well below the 62.7% recorded on the straight party-vote question. RNZ

The broader context here is a political landscape in which the governing coalition has minimal room for error. A 61-seat majority leaves no buffer for by-election losses, departures, or any breakdown in coalition discipline. The poll suggests the centre-right's hold depends on holding together three distinct constituencies while a majority of the electorate signals openness to alternatives.

National's drop to its lowest polling under Luxon's leadership compounds that fragility. The party has been losing ground across successive polls, with the combined Labour-National vote declining from 66.9% in January to 62.7% now.

For Labour, the numbers look more encouraging on the surface, but the consideration-adjusted data tempers that picture. When second-choice preferences are factored in, Labour's support drops below 30%. The party's committed-vote floor of 15.7% is the highest of any single party, but it still leaves a large pool of persuadable voters who name Labour as a possibility rather than a certainty.

The minor parties all benefit from the consideration-adjusted model, but the standout is TOP. Sitting at 4.7% on the straight party-vote question, the party climbs to 6% when second-choice support is included. That puts TOP over the threshold and in a position no minor party outside the current Parliament has held in recent polling.

NZ First's rise to 13.8% in the adjusted model is also worth noting. Winston Peters' party already holds the balance of power within the coalition; a higher consideration-adjusted figure suggests its electoral base is both solid and expandable. The Greens' gain to 13.1% indicates a significant second-choice reservoir for the left bloc. ACT's move to 10.5% follows a similar pattern on the right.

The 54.4% of respondents open to seriously considering more than one party is the throughline of the poll. It means more than half the electorate is not locked into a tribal vote, and the consideration-adjusted figures show where those voters are looking. The data points to a Parliament in which the two major parties are contracting while smaller parties capture a growing share of both committed and persuadable voters.

For the governing coalition, the arithmetic is straightforward: 61 seats is enough to govern, but only just.