Prediction Markets Offer Bets on Measles, Vaccines and Drug Approvals
Users of the online prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket can place bets on US measles cases, vaccine policy and drug approvals, according to the Guardian, which reported on the markets on 14 November 2026.
A prediction market is an online platform where people wager on whether a future event will happen. Polymarket describes its offerings as covering a wide range of subjects, and public health is among them. Kalshi began offering health-related markets over the summer before November 2026.
The health contracts cover a range of questions. Users can bet on when the US Food and Drug Administration, the federal agency that approves medicines, will approve a skin-cancer vaccine. They can also bet on whether the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the federal body that issues public health guidance, will change its vaccine recommendations. Other markets focus on the outcomes of drug trials and approvals.
Measles is the subject of several markets. Users can wager on how many measles cases the US will record in 2026. They can also bet on whether the country will lose its measles-elimination status, the designation for having stopped the disease from spreading within the country, during the same year. Prediction markets also offer bets on when certain health agency officials will leave their posts.
The markets operate under federal commodities law and are overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator for futures and derivatives. Because of that oversight, they are not regulated by individual states as gambling operations. Several states have nonetheless filed lawsuits against prediction-market companies, alleging that the platforms function as gambling sites.
The debate has also reached the street. A Polymarket sign asking "Will any state end vaccine markets?" appeared on a construction fence next to an elementary school in Brooklyn, New York City.
Among the experts cited in the Guardian report are Matthew Eisenberg, professor and chair of health policy and management at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, and Lia Nower, professor and director of the Center for Gambling Studies at Rutgers University.
