Spider-Man: Brand New Day is tracking toward a domestic opening weekend of $260 million to $280 million from 4,300 North American theatres, with some box office watchers suggesting it could cross $300 million, according to Variety. Sony Pictures, characteristically cautious, has set its own estimate at $190 million to $195 million.

Only nine films have ever surpassed $200 million in a single domestic weekend — domestic meaning the United States and Canada. Only one has broken $300 million: Avengers: Endgame, which holds the record with a $357 million debut in April 2019 and a $1.2 billion global opening. The current No. 2 domestic opener is Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) at $260 million, followed by Avengers: Infinity War (2018) at $257 million and Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) at $247 million, per Variety.

On the international side, Brand New Day is projected to earn $275 million to $300 million. The film lands day-and-date in China, a market that No Way Home skipped entirely — that film still grossed $1.9 billion worldwide without it. For comparison, No Way Home opened to $327 million internationally and $587 million globally; Infinity War ranks as the second-biggest global debut with $640 million. The previous Spider-Man entry, Far From Home (2019), launched to $95 million in China.

Directed by Destin Daniel Cretton, Brand New Day cost $225 million to produce. Tom Holland stars as Peter Parker, now fighting crime full-time in a world where nobody remembers him — the premise confirmed on Sony's official film page. Holland, who recently married co-star Zendaya, described the film at its Los Angeles premiere on 27 July 2026 as "more mature" and the most emotional of the Spider-Man series, according to Deadline and AP.

The demand signals began weeks ago. The second trailer amassed over half a billion views, making it the second-biggest trailer launch on record, per Deadline. The film also posted the best first-day U.S. presales ever. Some major theatre chains are now scheduling showtimes every 15 minutes across opening weekend.

One premium format will be missing from the pile. Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey, which opened earlier in July, has locked the entire Imax network for three weekends. Brand New Day will screen on all other premium large formats. The Odyssey is expected to earn $50 million to $60 million in its third weekend — overlapping Brand New Day's debut frame, per Variety.

If tracking holds near the upper end, the combined domestic box office for the weekend could challenge the biggest collective weekends on record: the $402 million frame led by Endgame, the $314 million led by Infinity War, and the $313 million led by The Force Awakens.

What gives the numbers weight is the trajectory. Early tracking from Deadline in early July placed the opening at $180 million to $190 million. A long-range forecast from Box Office Pro on 10 July projected $230 million to $250 million. Forbes and IGN, both reporting on 27 July, flagged Brand New Day as the biggest opener of 2026. Each successive update has climbed.

Sony will not confirm final figures until Sunday's studio estimates, with Monday actuals to follow. Until then, every number is a projection — but the direction of travel is unmistakable.