National has dropped below 30% support in a new poll, with Labour now in the lead—a shift that will change how the government thinks about the rest of its term.

The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll published on 15 June 2026 recorded National below 30%, while the smaller coalition parties, ACT and NZ First, both gained voters. This is unusual for a government midterm, especially one that won with a strong vote share in 2023.

The important detail is what's happening inside the government's coalition. While National is losing support, ACT and NZ First are picking it up. This matters because National now depends more on its partners to have enough votes to govern. A National Party on its own has more power to make decisions than one relying on allies. ACT leader David Seymour made this point. When asked about NZ First's track record, Stuff reported on 14 June 2026 that Seymour said "you never quite know about NZ First."

That comment is worth taking seriously. NZ First has dropped below 5%—the threshold needed to enter Parliament on its own—before. Sometimes it comes back, sometimes it doesn't. This creates uncertainty for the government. A poll showing NZ First up while National is down is not a comfortable sign for those managing the coalition.

Eight different polling firms have tracked voter support during this term of Parliament, according to Wikipedia's polling records. This latest result fits a pattern. Earlier, a Roy Morgan poll from June 2024 showed only small gains for the three governing parties combined. People thought that was a low point. Nearly two years later, this new poll suggests things have gotten worse for National.

Being below 30% is not the end of the road by itself—National has governed on lower numbers before with coalition partners—but the direction matters. Christopher Luxon's personal approval ratings are another thing political journalists are watching. Those numbers are not included in this poll.

Labour leading on party support this far into the term gives Chris Hipkins a story to tell voters. But Labour faces its own problem: even if it wins the most support, assembling a working government remains difficult. The left-of-centre parties—Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori—have struggled to find a clear path to majority in recent polls. National going down does not fix this on its own.

What matters now is what happens next. The winter budget, cost-of-living figures, and the long debate over the Treaty Principles Bill are all shaping how voters judge the government. The next few polls will show whether this is a one-off dip or the start of a longer slide.