Chris Hipkins says Labour still has momentum, despite losing support in the latest poll. The RNZ-Reid Research poll shows Labour at 34 percent, down 1.6 points since March. National fell further, dropping 2.1 points to 28.7 percent RNZ.

Hipkins pointed out that Labour has gained roughly six points of support since the 2023 election. He called National "the most unpopular first-term party under MMP" and described Labour as "probably one of the most popular first term oppositions since MMP was introduced" RNZ.

What matters most for the next election is not just the party vote percentages but how those numbers translate into seats in Parliament. On these poll figures, the governing coalition would win 61 seats against 59 for Labour and its potential allies RNZ.

New Zealand First recorded its strongest result in nine years on the Reid Research poll series RNZ. That means the government is relying on its coalition partner for its majority, not on National's own support. For a government in its first term, with an election about twelve months away, that is fragile ground.

Hipkins also rejected the idea that Labour's drop since January shows the campaign is stalling. He said the real campaign was only just starting and Labour was now beginning to release its own policies RNZ.

On policy, Hipkins criticised National's KiwiSaver changes, calling them "half-baked" and saying they would harm low-income earners RNZ. He also confirmed Labour supports the government joining the Ocean of Peace Alliance, a Pacific security agreement with Australia and Fiji, giving both sides some common ground on that issue RNZ.

National says it is sticking with current leadership. Brigitte Morten, a National Party volunteer and law firm director, said the poll would not trigger a leadership change RNZ. That is the standard public position from party figures, though leadership questions can still be discussed privately.

Here is what is happening beneath the headline numbers. Both major parties are losing support at the same time, and smaller parties like New Zealand First are picking up those voters. This is normal in New Zealand's election cycle — voters often shop around before the campaign starts properly, then settle their choices closer to polling day. It means the seat count, not the party percentages, tells you where power actually lies. A 61-59 split is close enough that neither side can claim they are clearly winning, no matter what they say on the radio.

The RNZ-Reid Research poll has been running since April 2025 RNZ, which means the data is solid enough now to spot real trends. The shift between March and July for both major parties is the first meaningful movement the polls have captured as the campaign kicks off RNZ.