Prime Minister Christopher Luxon went on RNZ's Morning Report to answer questions after a new poll put his party, National, on 28.7 percent — the lowest it has been since he became leader.

The poll came out the week before the interview, which aired on 19 July 2026. Luxon has been appearing on the programme regularly, with earlier slots on 2 June, 29 June and 6 July. RNZ

It's not just National struggling. A 1News Verian poll from late June showed both Labour and National at their lowest combined level of support in 30 years. Meanwhile, a smaller party called the Opportunity Party was close to the 5 percent mark — the threshold a party needs to reach to get seats in Parliament. 1News

When voters are asked who they would prefer as Prime Minister, the numbers are also low. As reported on 6 July, Luxon was at 18 percent and Labour leader Chris Hipkins at 16 percent. Added together, that's 34 percent — the lowest combined total for the two main party leaders in 33 years. The Spinoff

National governs in a coalition with two other parties — ACT and NZ First. According to RNZ, both have been publicly criticising National while its poll numbers are down.

But the government as a whole is in better shape than National on its own. A Roy Morgan poll for June 2026 put the combined National, ACT and NZ First vote at 51 percent — barely changed from the previous poll. Roy Morgan

Under New Zealand's voting system, called MMP, parties often team up to form a government because one party rarely wins enough votes to govern alone. Think of it like a group project: National is the biggest contributor, but ACT and NZ First are needed to get the total over the line. The problem for Luxon is that his party's share is shrinking, even though the group total still holds above 50 percent. That means National isn't so much losing to Labour — it's leaking support to its own partners.

The broader context here is that New Zealand politics has moved away from the days when Labour and National dominated between them. With both at historically low levels and smaller parties gaining ground, the next election will likely be decided by coalition deals rather than one party winning outright. For Luxon, the 28.7 percent result means people are now asking whether he helps or hurts National's chances — and his coalition partners are already raising that question publicly.

Luxon's weekly Morning Report appearances at 7:52 AM have been part of his strategy to shape the government's message. But the regular interviews haven't turned the polls around. Each appearance has lined up with worse numbers, not better. RNZ

For political journalists watching from the Parliamentary Press Gallery, the key question is whether ACT and NZ First will use National's weak polling to boost their own profiles ahead of the election. That is normal in MMP — smaller parties in a coalition often gain support as voters start telling the parties apart. But if the gap between National and its partners gets too wide, too quickly, it could threaten the government's stability.

None of these poll results on their own tell us who will win the election. The Roy Morgan and RNZ-Reid Research polls measure different things, and preferred Prime Minister ratings can shift fast once campaigning begins. What they do show is that Luxon heads into election year with his party at its weakest under his leadership, his personal popularity below 20 percent, and his coalition partners willing to publicly distance themselves from National.