The European Central Bank — the ECB — is expected to leave its key interest rates unchanged when it meets on July 23 in Frankfurt. Every analyst agrees, and financial markets see less than a 5% chance of any change. ING THINK. The decision comes at 14:15 CET, followed by a press conference with ECB President Christine Lagarde at 15:00 CET.

Interest rates are the price of borrowing money. When the ECB changes its rates, it affects what banks charge you for loans and what they pay you on savings. The ECB has three main rates. The most important for ordinary people is the deposit rate — what banks earn for leaving money at the ECB overnight. Right now that rate is 2.25%.

Six weeks ago, at its June meeting, the ECB raised all three key rates by a quarter of a percentage point. That brought the deposit rate to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate to 2.40%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.65%. ECB. That hike was unanimous — every member of the ECB's Governing Council supported it. ING THINK.

The June increase was no surprise. Markets had already expected it, and the euro's value reflected that ahead of time. ING THINK. The bigger picture is that the ECB has been moving rates around a lot. It cut rates four times in the first half of 2025, bringing the deposit rate down from 3% to 2% by mid-2025. CNBC. The June 2026 hike partially reversed those cuts.

Looking ahead, analysts expect the ECB to raise rates again in September 2026, then hold steady for the rest of the year. Morningstar. ING's THINK platform reached the same conclusion in its July 2026 review of major central banks. ING THINK. That matches the platform's March analysis, which noted that a July hike was already expected and that the ECB's December projections included one rate cut for 2026. ING THINK.

Even with everyone expecting a hold this week, ING's ECB preview flagged that renewed Middle East tensions could still push the ECB to raise rates in July. ING THINK. That is unlikely. With markets seeing under a 5% chance of any move, the ECB would need a strong, immediate reason to go against expectations.

Here is where things stand. The deposit rate was 2% after the mid-2025 cuts. The June hike brought it to 2.25%. Another hike in September would push it to 2.50% — the second increase of 2026, further undoing the cuts from earlier in the year. Whether rates keep rising after that depends on inflation (how fast prices are rising) and what happens geopolitically between now and September.

The broader context here is that the July 23 rate decision is not really the story. It is effectively locked in. What matters is what Lagarde says at the press conference about where rates are heading. A September hike is what analysts expect, but whether the ECB treats that as a firm plan or something that depends on upcoming data will influence how markets price short-term interest rates. The June minutes showed all Council members agreed on the hike, so they appear united. Any sign of disagreement would be the real surprise.

The official summary of the July 23 meeting will be published about four weeks later, following standard ECB practice.