Gold Hits a Two-Month High After U.S. Inflation Data Cools Rate-Hike Bets
Spot gold rose 0.9% to $4,406.64 per ounce by 1:30 p.m. EDT on August 12, 2026, climbing above its 100-day moving average to touch its highest level in more than two months after a U.S. inflation reading matched expectations Reuters. The 100-day moving average is a trend-following indicator that averages the last 100 days of closing prices; clearing it signals that short-term upward momentum has taken hold. The inflation data dented market bets that the Federal Reserve would raise rates, removing a key headwind for non-yielding bullion — gold pays no interest, so higher rates typically make it less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets.
The August 12 spot-price move extended a four-session winning streak on the Comex. August delivery gold futures settled $25.90 higher, or 0.59%, at $4,408.90 per troy ounce on August 11, capping a four-session run of $166.90, or 3.93% WSJ. Comex settlements listed on CME Group's page for August 11 showed a price of 4,427.4, a change of +19.2 (+0.44%), as of 9:22:53 PM CT CME Group.
The prior session had seen spot gold trade down 0.4% at $4,369.57 per ounce on August 11 after earlier hitting $4,434.84, its highest level since June 5 CNBC. Market participants had been awaiting the key U.S. inflation data, and the subsequent print, which met consensus expectations, bolstered the case that the central bank would hold rates steady rather than tighten further Reuters.
The trajectory earlier in the month provides context for the magnitude of the move. On August 3, gold futures opened at $4,135.20 per troy ounce, up 0.7% Yahoo Finance. Spot prices on that same day were trading at $4,051 per ounce as of 10 a.m. Eastern Time, a $13 increase from the same time in July Fortune. Gold had first breached the $4,000 per troy ounce threshold in October 2025, trading at approximately $4,003 just after 4 p.m. ET on a Tuesday and marking roughly a 50% gain since the start of that year AP News.
On the structural front, CME Group announced on August 11, 2026, that it will expand 24/7 trading to 100-ounce silver futures following the successful launch of continuous gold trading. The silver contract will be financially settled based on the daily settlement price and represents approximately $219 million in notional value — the total dollar value of the contracts traded based on their face amount CME Group. The expansion of around-the-clock trading access on the exchange comes as the August 2026 gold futures contract approaches its August 27 settlement date CME Group.
The broader context here is that the rate-sensitivity on display is the operative variable. When a single in-line inflation reading can drive a 0.9% intraday spot rally and extend a four-session futures streak of nearly 4%, the market is pricing not a fundamental shift in the macro regime but a recalibration of the Fed's expected policy path. Think of it like a thermostat: traders aren't saying the whole climate has changed, just adjusting their dial for how aggressive the central bank is likely to be. The clearance of the 100-day moving average confirms that short-term momentum has flipped, with sellers unable to hold that line. The larger picture is one of a market still digesting gold's 50% run from early 2025 through its initial break above $4,000, now consolidating at elevated nominal levels. For participants, the question is whether this two-month high is a local ceiling or a pivot point for another leg higher — a question that the next round of labor and inflation data, not chart geometry, will answer.
