Gulf Crude Exports Are Back to Pre-War Levels, but Diesel Is Still Stuck
Crude oil exports from the Gulf reached 16.5 million barrels per day in September, matching the pre-war average excluding Iran, according to Kpler data cited by analysts tracking the recovery. The Guardian That September total was 10.5 million barrels per day higher than the monthly average for March, recorded during the first weeks of the conflict.
The conflict began on 28 February with US and Israeli strikes on Iran. In March, exports slumped. Insurers withdrew ships, crews refused transits, and the threat of closure hung over the waterway that handles about 20% of all oil supplies.
The rebound did not come from a full reopening of the strait. It came from workarounds. Pipeline exports and ship-to-ship transfers are now central to moving fuel out of the Middle East, according to analysts. About 40% of the region's crude is now transported without transiting Hormuz, compared with 17% before the war, through Saudi and Emirati pipelines, according to Kpler analysis.
Saudi Arabia restarted operations on its east-west pipeline in late September after drone-attack damage. That allowed exports to resume from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The US military continues to escort some vessels in the Hormuz region.
Crude and diesel have moved on separate paths. For crude that still transits the strait, the supply chain looks little like its pre-war form. Most of it is carried on a shuttle fleet mostly made up of very large crude carriers, the largest class of oil tanker, sailing with satellite transponders, or AIS tracking signals, turned off. That crude is then moved onto different tankers in open water, like a relay handoff, usually off the coast of Oman or Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates.
More than 70% of the crude that passed through the strait in August changed tankers, whereas before the war almost no Gulf crude changed ships in the Gulf of Oman. The United States military has overseen scores of secretive ship-to-ship oil transfers to keep Gulf energy exports flowing, a practice documented in June. Reuters
Refined products have not followed the same trajectory. Less than 20% of pre-war levels of refined products shipped through Hormuz were being transported, according to Kpler analysts. Diesel and other refined fuel supplies through the strait remained severely constrained by refinery damage and shipping disruption.
Flows of refined products such as diesel through Hormuz remained constrained, and prices rose. The average UK diesel price hit an all-time high of 199.18p a litre.
Earlier assessments expected a slower crude recovery. Rystad Energy analysts said Gulf oil exports could take until next year to reach pre-crisis levels, as reported on 15 June 2026. On that same date in June, the price of Brent crude, the global price benchmark, dropped about 4% to about $83 amid optimism the strait could reopen shortly. By 10 April, oil prices had remained close to $100 per barrel despite the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, a temporary halt to fighting. The U.S. Energy Information Administration assumes that oil flows from the Middle East remain constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026. EIA
Other producers adjusted in the interim. US crude exports from export terminals climbed by a third to a record 5.2 million barrels per day, as reported on 26 April 2026. The 2008 record oil price was $147.50 a barrel, a benchmark revisited in market coverage in March as prices spiked after the strikes.
The broader context here is a two-track energy market that diplomats and traders will need to read separately. Crude volumes show that overland diversion, ships sailing without tracking signals, and direct military escort compensated for risk in Hormuz. Product markets show damage to refining capacity and to the specialized chemical and clean-product tanker fleet cannot be bypassed as easily, leaving import-dependent economies exposed even when headline crude balances look restored.
Looking ahead to the next few months, the durability of the current arrangement depends on variables outside normal commercial shipping. Continued escort availability, insurer tolerance for ships sailing without tracking signals and off-Oman transfers, and the integrity of the Saudi east-west system after repair will determine whether September marks stabilisation or a high-water mark. For European diesel buyers in particular, crude parity with pre-war averages offers little relief until clean-product transits recover or alternative sourcing and refining margins adjust.
