Middle East Oil Exports Pass Pre-War Levels While Hormuz Traffic Lags
Middle East crude exports ran above pre-war levels on four of seven days in late September, according to provisional ship-tracking data from Kpler reported on October 5.
Kpler put crude loadings at 19.5 to 22.5 million barrels per day, a standard measure of oil flow, on September 24 and September 27-29. The pre-war average was 18 million barrels per day between March 2025 and February 2026, before the US-Israel war on Iran began. Al Jazeera
The rebound went beyond crude oil. Combined exports of crude, refined oil products, chemicals and other non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million barrels per day in the seven days to September 30. The seven-day average, which smooths daily jumps, for crude alone stood at 18.5 million barrels per day on October 1.
Without Iran, regional exports passed pre-war levels in late September, Kpler data show. Increased flows through pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries much Gulf oil to the ocean, helped lift total loadings above the earlier baseline. Straits Times
Traffic through the Strait itself was much lower. IRGC commander Ali Fadavi said only 3 to 4 million barrels per day now move through Hormuz, calling the amount negligible compared with before the war. For August, Vortexa estimated 6.4 million barrels per day through the Strait, Kpler estimated 5.9 million, and TankerTrackers estimated 5.5 million. Kpler also assesses that 40% of Middle East Gulf crude exports now bypass the Strait.
Shipments of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, moved in the other direction. LNG is natural gas cooled to liquid for transport by ship. The number of LNG cargoes leaving the Strait in September reached its highest monthly level since February 2026.
Tehran describes the Strait as closed and under its control. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said it will stay closed until the United States accepts Tehran's seven-day plan to reopen the waterway. Fadavi claimed no US vessels were in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman or the northern Indian Ocean, and claimed US warships are "100 percent vulnerable to IRGC attacks." Washington rejects that account. US Central Command has stated Iran does not control the Strait and the waterway stays open for transit. CENTCOM IranWire reported the US military set up a controlled shipping corridor along the southern side of the Strait in recent weeks.
Attacks continue to be reported. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. Other recent estimates pointed to recovery. The Guardian reported on October 1 that crude exports from the Strait had largely returned to pre-war levels, while JPMorgan on October 2 put Middle East crude exports at 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of pre-war levels.
Dependence on Hormuz was already falling before this crisis. Volumes of crude and condensate, a light form of oil, passing through the Strait fell by 1.5 million barrels per day between 2022 and the first half of 2025, according to the EIA. Gulf producers exported 3.3 million barrels per day of refined products and 1.5 million barrels per day of LPG in 2025, according to the IEA. Vortexa had estimated a March-April 2026 closure could remove an average of 17.5 million barrels per day, including 13.4 million of crude and 4.1 million of main refined products.
The broader context here is decoupling. Total exports and Strait transits are no longer rising and falling together. Oil from Gulf producers outside Iran, pipelines to terminals outside the Gulf, and flows of products and chemicals are keeping headline totals up while passage through the chokepoint stays limited.
In my view, the questions for operators and policymakers are about durability and checking the numbers. Provisional tracking data get revised. Pipeline spare capacity has limits. And with daily attacks reported, a corridor system running alongside closure claims leaves little room for error.
