Middle East Oil Exports Top Pre-War Levels as Hormuz Toll Questions Grow

Middle East crude exports rose above their pre-war average in the final week of September for the first time since the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began in February, according to provisional data from Kpler, an energy data firm.

The seven-day average climbed above roughly 18 million barrels per day (bpd, the standard measure of oil flow). On four days that week, regional loadings ran between 19.5 and 22.5 million bpd. For September as a whole, Kpler put crude exports excluding Iran at an average of at least 16.5 million bpd. Al Jazeera

Before the war, about one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas exports moved through the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean.

Kpler's head of policy and geopolitical risk, Michelle Brohard, said in an interview last week with energy analyst Rory Johnston that she suspects a toll is being paid to secure safe passage through the strait. Brohard said she suspects Gulf countries are paying Iran 10 percent or 20 percent of their cargo for passage. That claim has not been independently verified. It was presented as suspicion rather than a finding backed by evidence.

In March, Lloyd's List reported that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had imposed a toll booth system to control vessel traffic through Hormuz. The Trump administration has repeatedly said during the war that Iran will not be permitted to charge a toll under any potential agreement with Washington. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said Iran will not be permitted to charge tolls or fees for vessels transiting the strait.

Other reported figures have varied widely. Reports in April suggested a Hormuz transit fee could be as high as $2 million per transit, roughly equal to the total cost of chartering a very large crude carrier (VLCC), the largest class of oil tanker. A senior Iranian source was cited in August as seeking fees of 5% to 7% of cargo price for passage. Tehran's ambassador to New Delhi said Indian tankers that transited the strait did not pay tolls to Iran. A new war risk clause, a change to insurance for ships in war zones, terminates insurance cover for vessels that pay Hormuz transit fees, according to shipping industry sources cited in August.

The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, a preliminary written agreement, does not rule out future tolls after an initial 60-day period. Regional sources said in late September that Tehran was willing to drop a demand for payment of transit fees from the main agreement in U.S.-Iran phased deal discussions. Reuters As of mid-August, Iran and Oman were close to finalising a bilateral arrangement governing traffic through the strait.

In September, roughly 40% of the Middle East's crude exports bypassed Hormuz, compared with about 17% before the war, according to analysts cited in late September. Wall Street Journal Saudi Arabia exported 3.4 million bpd in August, with September shipments surging nearly 80% over August levels. JPMorgan estimated Middle East crude exports at 17.5 million bpd, or 98% of pre-war levels, in an assessment published on 1 October. Brent crude futures, the global oil price benchmark, rose to $108.23 per barrel in mid-September after new strikes. Iraq's state-owned Oil Tanker Company announced on Saturday that it had transported two million barrels of crude on a very large crude carrier through Hormuz.

The broader context here is that volumes have returned, but the terms of movement are unclear. The market has learned to move oil around the chokepoint, a narrow passage where flow can be blocked, rather than through it. Bypass capacity via pipelines and Red Sea loadings explains part of the September rebound. It does not explain VLCC transits through Hormuz itself, which require either deterrence, accommodation, or both.

Looking at what this means for operators and policymakers, the toll question splits into three separate liabilities. The first is commercial: a 10 percent to 20 percent cargo levy, if paid, would reprice Gulf barrels far beyond freight and war risk premiums, the extra shipping and insurance costs. The second is legal: payment voids cover under the new war risk wording, leaving owners choosing between Iranian demands and insurance. The third is political: Washington has drawn a public line against any toll, yet the memorandum leaves the post-60-day regime undefined and phased-deal reporting suggests the fee issue has moved in and out of the core text.

In my view, the data gap is central. Kpler can observe loadings. It cannot observe transfers of value for passage, whether in cash, crude, or political concession. Until charter terms, P&I circulars, the notices from ship insurers, or an intergovernmental text disclose a mechanism, flows above 18 million bpd show resilience in logistics. They do not show freedom of navigation.