National's party vote falls about 9 points on election night

National's party vote fell by about 9 percentage points at Election 2026, according to RNZ's election-night analysis. The party vote is the ballot cast for a party rather than for a local candidate, and it is the main measure of each party's support. On election-night numbers, National's party vote was in the 20s.

CNN reported National's popular vote at 29.2%, down from 38.1% in 2023.

The count also points to a close result for the three-party coalition led by National. Reuters reported an Electoral Commission projection showing the coalition would secure a two-seat majority. The Guardian's live coverage reported that National had fallen from 50 seats in the preliminary count to 48.

RNZ said that, on election-night numbers, National was expected to lose five list MPs. List MPs enter Parliament from a party's ranking of candidates rather than by winning an electorate. RNZ also said National was expected to lose a net one or two electorate seats, or possibly none.

Four of National's most senior MPs, including its deputy leader, were removed from Parliament. Paul Goldsmith was beaten in Epsom by ACT leader David Seymour.

ACT and NZ First together added roughly six percentage points to their 2023 tallies, according to RNZ. National figure Gerry Brownlee described the vote-splitting campaign as "like kids playing with matches". Vote-splitting is when a voter backs one party for their electorate vote and a different party for the party vote.

Te Pāti Māori ran an electorate-only campaign, which RNZ said added four seats to its overhang of 11. An overhang is a seat a party wins in an electorate beyond what its share of the party vote would otherwise entitle it to.

RNZ's election-night analysis also described the coalition's position in several electorates. It said the coalition was very vulnerable in Mount Roskill, quite vulnerable in Hamilton East and vaguely vulnerable in Whangārei. It said the coalition had a good chance in Wairarapa and dim hopes in Hutt South.

Some 530 candidates from 17 registered parties contested the election. Provisional enrolment stood at 3,790,946, a rate of 93.6%, according to the Electoral Commission. Preliminary results were released progressively from 7:00pm on the election results website. Official results, which include overseas votes and votes cast outside a voter's electorate, will be declared on 27 November.