Goldman Sachs is predicting gold will reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, according to its 2026 Commodities Outlook published in December 2025. Gold has already climbed to its highest levels in years, and this forecast suggests it will keep going up.

A few things stand out about this prediction. First, Goldman picked a single number—$4,900—not a range. That forces the bank to explain exactly how and why they think gold gets there. Second, the forecast is bullish compared to what many other banks are saying. Third, and most important for investors: it challenges a rule of thumb that has guided gold trading for decades.

The traditional thinking goes like this: gold produces no income (like a dividend or interest payment). So when interest rates go up, the cost of holding gold rises—and people typically sell. Think of it like comparing a savings account that pays interest to a piggy bank that just sits there; as the savings account gets more attractive, the piggy bank looks worse. For years, that relationship held up in real markets.

But Goldman says something has shifted. Countries around the world—especially China, Poland, India, and the Gulf states—have been buying enormous amounts of gold for their national reserves. These government buyers, the bank argues, don't react to interest rate changes the way traders or everyday investors do. If governments keep buying at this pace, they could prop up the gold price even if interest rates stay high. That is a genuinely different claim from what most people assume.

What could stop gold from reaching $4,900? A few scenarios matter most. If government demand dries up suddenly—maybe because countries face a dollar shortage and need to sell some gold to raise cash, or because world tensions cool down and they feel less urgency to diversify their reserves away from US Treasuries—the price could fall short. A big, sustained rally in stocks could also pull money away from gold, though historically the two have risen together when cash is flowing freely into markets.

One more important note: this is a forecast, not advice. Goldman's track record on predicting commodity prices, like every bank's, is mixed. Gold could reach $4,900, stay flat, or fall. What Goldman is doing usefully is pointing out that the old rules about gold and interest rates may not apply as cleanly anymore. Whether that turns out to be right is what traders and investors will be watching closely through the end of 2026.