Gold Held Up After the Fed Hiked to 3.75%-4.00%
Gold ended the week of September 18, 2026 higher at $4,360.36 an ounce. Spot gold was up 2.3% to that level as of 1:45 p.m. EDT on September 17, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.3% higher, according to Reuters. Bloomberg reported bullion held its gain after a volatile week as investors digested the Fed hike and a stall in the oil rally.
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00% in September 2026. It was the central bank's first rate hike since 2023. That range sat well above the easing path many trading desks had carried into the year.
The Wall Street Journal reported that gold futures held steady as a pullback in oil prices offset an inflation report that raised interest-rate expectations. Its report was titled 'Gold Little Changed As August CPI Raises Interest-Rate Expectations'. Wall Street Journal CPI, the Consumer Price Index, is the main gauge of U.S. inflation.
Price moves before the decision
Prices swung in both directions into the decision. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $4,385.09 per ounce by 02:22 p.m. EDT on September 8. That decline came before the September 17 rebound. Earlier, spot gold rose 2.3% to $4,488.54 per ounce by 02:04 p.m. ET on September 3, with U.S. gold futures settling 2.8% higher at $4539.9. Spot gold was up 0.7% at $4,379.95 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. EDT on August 14.
September levels stayed below spring highs. The Wall Street Journal reported gold traded above $4,800 a troy ounce, the standard unit for precious metals, in April amid renewed hopes for U.S.-Iran de-escalation. Gold prices had also fallen on profit-taking after scaling a record peak in the previous session around the September 2025 Fed cut.
What forecasters had expected
ANZ Research had expected gold prices to rise to USD 4,800 in 2026 and had expected a resumption of disinflation, meaning a cooling in inflation, in the U.S. in 2026. The bank put the oil-to-inflation pass-through at 0.15% on headline inflation and 0.06% on core inflation, which strips out food and energy, for a 10% increase in real oil prices. It also said oil prices were likely to carry a geopolitical risk premium and expected 2026 rate cuts in only the U.S., Australia and Indonesia.
Those forecasts predate the September hike. ANZ had expected a 25bp cut in the fed funds rate at the September meeting to a target range of 3.00-3.25%. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point, so 25bp equals 0.25%. That call was published in September 2025. The actual outcome was tightening, not easing.
The broader context here is the unusual mix. A rate hike that lifts short-term inflation-adjusted yields usually weighs on gold, an asset that pays no interest, through higher opportunity cost and a firmer dollar. Lower crude calms headline inflation expectations and breakevens, the market's implied inflation forecast, which can soften that drag. Net, bullion absorbed the hawkish surprise because softer energy improved the inflation outlook even as policy tightened.
In my view, what matters for savers, borrowers and investors next is persistence. If oil stays soft, the cooling-inflation path ANZ described is easier to defend even with policy at 3.75%-4.00%, a level that keeps borrowing costs high and savings rates firmer. If crude jumps again and embeds a geopolitical premium, the Fed faces stickier headline inflation with policy already restrictive. For gold, that leaves two pulls in tension: the cost of holding it versus demand as an inflation hedge and shelter from event risk.
